Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880b6d9c47e04ba9b6b89e8be632c9a6108f335137329c82a97b71c814278054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,782$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 2,240$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,019$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 670.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 4c | 644.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 615.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 13c | 565.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 6c | 518.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 12c | 501.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 9c | 454.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 13c | 420.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 411.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 10c | 407.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 385.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 9c | 379.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 360.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 327.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 12c | 324.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 7c | 323.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 11c | 299.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…1ec0backed Yes | 7c | 287.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb144…2c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 284.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Yes | 13c | 248.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 11c | 239.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 211.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 12c | 199.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 198.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 11c | 190.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed Yes | 10c | 189.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 169.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 10c | 168.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 13c | 156.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 12c | 153.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 10c | 150.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 17c | 147.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 10c | 146.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed Yes | 10c | 138.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 11c | 134.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 134.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 11c | 127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 12c | 122.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 116.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 113.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 12c | 95.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 12c | 89.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes | 14c | 84.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 13c | 81.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.