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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198e…ede0backed Yes28c1,078$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c851.62$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.156,11149.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L-116.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c794.32$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.499,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c606.9$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.385,79560%3,479 W · 2,316 L-110.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No75c482.03$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3165965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes33c448.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes31c416.94$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes32c409.9$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes30c361.49$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.332638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No71c359.75$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.511,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c332.09$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b5…1ec0backed Yes30c311.77$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c302.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.321,11123.7%263 W · 848 L+72.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes20c299.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6115717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No70c298.89$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.163,68633.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L-190.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes25c280.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.111724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c265.62$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No71c258.1$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8980957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No72c250.87$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c240$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.815,47856%3,069 W · 2,409 L-123.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes26c239.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6175138.2%287 W · 464 L+18.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes29c231.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes27c230$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes28c229.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.27628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c221.58$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5d…05f7backed No74c215.09$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.091040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes23c210$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No74c202.02$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9511663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…9c28backed Yes29c193.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c184.46$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.493,82161.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No70c173.69$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes30c171.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7456943.4%247 W · 322 L-32.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes29c163.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0460%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No74c161.35$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1519057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c160.79$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7912,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes31c160.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes28c160.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes7c160$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.534221.3%73 W · 269 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No69c156.6$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.371,43352.1%747 W · 686 L-21.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No71c155.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.82,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c155.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.141,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No71c154.23$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4555855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes34c147.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015830.4%48 W · 110 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c146.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.78,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No71c143.53$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.11,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0476…50b3backed No77c142.86$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.862277.3%17 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c138$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.234,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes30c131.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd046…1d77backed Yes24c126.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No73c126.79$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.642,62854%1,419 W · 1,209 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No69c123.91$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5444139%172 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No75c119.34$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3918365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes25c115$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.752,74329.7%816 W · 1,927 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed No66c114.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.064129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No71c111.77$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.553,11161.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L-31.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes26c110.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7427421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f6…5078backed Yes36c104.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x996b…ec84backed Yes25c103.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes31c101.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c100.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.857,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcdad…70acbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-76.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d31…2f85backed Yes25c99.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes21c99.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2216840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes22c98.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.581,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No72c97.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6171159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d5…d00ebacked Yes31c91.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c89.96$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No76c88.55$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6816467.7%111 W · 53 L+0.6wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c84.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.44,01435.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes22c83.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.355733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No72c83.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6310,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x068a…f8bdbacked Yes30c82.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes29c82.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8815725.5%40 W · 117 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c81.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.892,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes27c80.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.383,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1423…a8cabacked Yes34c79.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…3538backed No65c79.14$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.71625%4 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-29.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No74c78.52$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.182,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No74c78.51$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1722350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes30c77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.419341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes32c76.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.545831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c73.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.033,05040.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L-121.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes28c72.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes28c71.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes28c71.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.32532%8 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No68c71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7227669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes17c70.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.615230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.330565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes29c64.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.757817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8850…0bedbacked Yes31c64.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes17c63.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf173…a94ebacked Yes33c58.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes30c56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61,09329.6%324 W · 769 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes32c55.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.445468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes35c53.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6271333.5%239 W · 474 L+33.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes30c52.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.894447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.