TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198e…ede0backed Yes33c1,076$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.3156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No2c1,043$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.561,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c838.7$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.135,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes43c745.11$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.317140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes68c684.05$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7516724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No46c664.21$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1576755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No19c613.24$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes36c499.98$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9811337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No68c482.84$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.1965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No66c481.97$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.137942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No16c478.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.231,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c474.37$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No35c432.58$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.363,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No47c425.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.271,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes42c423.75$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.35933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No29c416.14$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.651,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No39c409.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0546824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No35c396$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb542…6cfebacked Yes78c383.76$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes51c312.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9815131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No50c302.97$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes35c300$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7986952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c286.11$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…98d0backed No10c276.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.86368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes43c256.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No46c256.11$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c254.05$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes45c247.2$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7440025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f6…5078backed Yes65c245.87$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c240$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.253,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes60c230.83$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.315468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes31c229.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.47628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c226.58$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.251,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No66c223.2$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.012,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No13c216.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes40c211.48$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.941,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes69c206.3$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes74c201.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c198.44$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes45c195.16$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes55c181.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.243740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc046…f138backed Yes39c178.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.432343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes71c177.43$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c172.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.548,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c170.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.734,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No42c169.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.653148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c169.79$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.955,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c169.63$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.911,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No51c163.95$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.332,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No67c158.77$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2319057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes61c154.21$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6754143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c152.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b8…1c88backed Yes69c149.22$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.261450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No66c145.42$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes36c144.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.782638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea93…ce39backed Yes35c141.63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…db6ebacked No8c141.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked No30c139.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.915812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes48c137.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1715843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No34c132.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No56c130.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed No22c129.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4512228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes77c129.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0410141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes35c128.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No64c128.29$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2983459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes40c127.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c127.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes40c123.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes41c123.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3730919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes34c121.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No42c120.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes48c119.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2210439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes33c119.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c119.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.991,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked No17c119.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.825742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…9226backed No68c118.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No66c117.53$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6115669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1153…707fbacked Yes58c115.64$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.614475%33 W · 11 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c114.53$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.093,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c113.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No14c113$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c109.44$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.772,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c108.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.174,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed No23c106.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.919217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No62c105$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No66c104.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.461,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes39c103.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.285644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cae…e877backed No21c103.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes46c102.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6112941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.751,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3679040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Yes46c99.58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.292850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11c9…61adbacked Yes43c98.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes39c96.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9644536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes36c95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.828551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed No23c91.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7631319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9775…b70dbacked Yes78c90.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.96248.4%30 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes34c86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0613941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.