TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes17c2,236$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.411,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes24c2,214$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.1142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes9c1,555$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.521,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes7c1,477$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.241,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes21c1,177$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes13c577.95$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.591,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes31c577.11$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c505.14$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.049,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…98d0backed Yes10c501.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.59368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes25c488.91$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.359634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes18c482.5$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No78c481.67$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes14c475.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4115717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes13c473.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4719217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c438.4$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.135,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c427.08$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.471,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes34c372.74$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7716724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa110…9b09backed Yes17c360.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c352.75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.861,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes18c340.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.925812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes21c339.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No69c325.49$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4946824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes16c309.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No77c289.86$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.333,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes39c282.31$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11115131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c261.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes24c239.62$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.54540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes15c204.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes27c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0186952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes23c199.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes17c199.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.817628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes17c197.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.262638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes26c196.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.778337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No77c193.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb542…6cfebacked No80c187.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes16c186.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7561629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1805…a069backed Yes28c174.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.752231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c173.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c168.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.465,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No73c155.89$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.722,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c152.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edf…b371backed Yes12c151.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cae…e877backed Yes18c150.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.583724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes10c145.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.064731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes17c142.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.342,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes14c139.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No78c139.56$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.419057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes24c130.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes18c130.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.981,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes14c128.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes9c128.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9111724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes16c124.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9951631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes15c121.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.432429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes19c118.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.691,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c114$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.821,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No76c110$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccaa…3942backed Yes18c108.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c106.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.142,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9c…02febacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x117a…b669backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0b…aeeebacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d94…1a85backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…cd28backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205158.8%30 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes24c99.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2427421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes19c98.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.46719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c97.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes19c96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes16c95.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2910636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes17c94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.313728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6313…1db9backed No75c93.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes14c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5d…e43cbacked No77c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes14c89.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8668645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes14c85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.994919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes28c83.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20a…7434backed Yes19c81.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e03…6ac2backed Yes33c80.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.83933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c79.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.432,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10fe…3053backed Yes14c79.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes21c76.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c76.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes15c74.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ec…7ef0backed Yes26c74.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421560%9 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d9a…e084backed No76c74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92065%13 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes19c73.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7312228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No75c71.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7371159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d9…f161backed No77c68.05$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No76c65.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.591,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes18c62.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c62.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2510…b91bbacked No79c61.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.078545.9%39 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No72c61.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2928456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes19c60.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.446243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes25c52.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0931319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.