MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88277944ba1d8c75e0e5d5cd5894131dfdafd7bf980ac9c79431e4e2affdd1f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 3,354$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 1,014$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 998.02$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 894.11$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 728.57$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.14 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 550.48$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.28 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 537.45$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 515.34$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 513.28$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.03 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 449.48$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 422.66$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 399.15$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 381.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.9 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 292.76$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 247.39$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 247.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 190.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 151.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 149.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 106.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 101.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 92.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 75.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 50.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 49.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 49.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 48.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 48.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 32.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 28.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.