MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf66c42bfe6bbfdfaeb15bc956b27e4a6c687bde823500b6fa5d0a88da3aba0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 4,600$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 2,528$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 78c | 2,495$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 55c | 1,036$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.65 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 60c | 689.85$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.39 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 24c | 654.07$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 653.05$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 23c | 619.26$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 579.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 368.52$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 17c | 329.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 32c | 313.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 23c | 234.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 65c | 225$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 26c | 212.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 69c | 194.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…d08fbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 159.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 159.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 67c | 147.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 35c | 132.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 59c | 127.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 58c | 125.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 106.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 106$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 23c | 97.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 97.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 90.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 45c | 88.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 72c | 76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Over | 45c | 75.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Under | 59c | 62.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 60.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Under | 61c | 58.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 60c | 54.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 61c | 51.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 47.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Under | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Under | 69c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 76c | 21.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 63c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 79c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.