MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf528e38a3f10b02e0353a0b6931bdf7e23486213a8fe022eb9306cee1bdc4d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 5,126$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 4,710$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 1,928$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…6277backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 1,579$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 1,200$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 1,153$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 21c | 968.21$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.29 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 733.28$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.64 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 721.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 601.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 557.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 340$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…d08fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 299.92$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 277.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 247$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.36 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 198.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 197.74$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 17c | 165.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 158.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 143$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 139.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 136.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…3e27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 123.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 116.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 111$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 107.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Baltimore Orioles | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 97.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 83.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…1f59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 79.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 75.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 49.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 44.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 44.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 18.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.