MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb952de81d7124064472767e1f317dd2ece2c1f40ff40f4a47c57686e99966ffe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 1,145$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 963.04$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.25 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 763.89$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 625$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 464$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 419.59$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.93 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…5a4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 382.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 357$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 167.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…6277backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 142.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 141.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 108.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 44.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 34.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 32.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 32.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 29.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 27.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 23.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 23.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 17.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.