MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883d9c9a53bf99851b45d84dd3c7d9290b0b40931ad0e4228613b87a387e6a91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 24c | 9,286$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.54 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 76c | 3,926$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.19 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 76c | 1,299$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.69 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 76c | 980.22$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 76c | 653.92$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.94 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 76c | 653.49$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 44c | 634.5$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.18 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 56c | 534$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.96 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 76c | 483$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 76c | 392.09$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 76c | 384.61$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 77c | 271.68$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 263.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 17c | 234.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 76c | 196.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 195$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Over | 80c | 186.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 20c | 174$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 15c | 135.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 22c | 126.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 102.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 20c | 100.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 76.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 80c | 65.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Over | 76c | 39.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 58c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 76c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 76c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.