MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9eb95e71be38c324ef7424d5732e3569e0e04eaebcfa8ac8a3c29f662875301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3625…1187backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 11,683$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 379 | 53.6%203 W · 176 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Houston Astros | 59c | 8,864$5,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.2 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 7,241$3,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,522.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 3,386$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 2,138$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.36 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,859$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 1,640$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.88 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,011$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…0009backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,010$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 921$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.03 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 56c | 908$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Houston Astros | 55c | 628.99$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Houston Astros | 56c | 610.05$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.42 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 56c | 607$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 604$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.64 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 596.71$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.85 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 59c | 568.21$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 57c | 539.24$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 58c | 497.53$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 33c | 390.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 372.09$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 342$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 298.24$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 255.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Houston Astros | 56c | 167.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 47c | 152.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 138.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 133.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 126.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Houston Astros | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Houston Astros | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 66.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 65.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 44.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 43.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 41.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…a60dbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 36.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…a37fbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Houston Astros | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Houston Astros | 60c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 20.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Houston Astros | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Houston Astros | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.