MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31dbb147208b8cc963eeb4d9606b4e09112e7bb3dd48b2b941142222d186d36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 162,120$71,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,787.18 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 88,888$49,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,777.28 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 56c | 58,945$33,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,008.94 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 5,093$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Under | 56c | 4,464$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…7ac2backed Under | 58c | 3,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 2,239$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 45c | 1,758$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.9 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 1,538$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 1,217$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 21c | 942.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 9c | 612.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 579.09$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 568.72$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 523$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 5c | 521.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 29c | 495$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 43c | 465.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 56c | 430.78$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.24 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 420$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 20c | 357.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 247.84$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 45c | 246.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Under | 56c | 206.57$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 56c | 192.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 45c | 186.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 45c | 170.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 156$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 56c | 113.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…5934backed Over | 72c | 105.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -15.4wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed Over | 72c | 105.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 89.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 45c | 73.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…f516backed Under | 56c | 64.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 57.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 45c | 41.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 39.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 41c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 41c | 25.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.