Fifa International · resolved market
Federico Valverde: 2+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887cc419b544c920a5490ce625ffda44ec4024bd32977df5b4904dfc739b326a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,237$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.3 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 49c | 705.69$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.98 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe745…5681backed Yes | 64c | 312.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 49c | 266.43$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 44c | 197.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked No | 51c | 144.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked No | 40c | 107.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…0d12backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked No | 48c | 69.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 40c | 64.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 35c | 64.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 35c | 59.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9f99backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…d632backed Yes | 70c | 43.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da8…e5e2backed Yes | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…1a4bbacked No | 52c | 33.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +12.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Federico Valverde: 2+ shotsthis page
- Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ shotsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Merino: 2+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Merino: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nico Williams: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Pedri: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedri: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rodri: 1+ assistsNo won
- Rodri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rodri: 2+ assistsNo won
- Rodri: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Yeremi Pino: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.