Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887e2cbeb147946f61b4d408350911c2a5320b6eaf4b88655ff877925561e6de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 38c | 863.3$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.11 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 336.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked No | 44c | 331.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 230.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 34c | 209$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 196$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 184.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 179$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 177.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 168.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 62c | 150.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 76c | 131.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 129.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 112$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 108.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 61c | 106.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 95.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 80.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…bb12backed Yes | 39c | 80.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 79.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 38c | 60.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 23c | 55.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 51.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 50.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 48c | 40.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed No | 28c | 38.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 36c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.