Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda148d0af8b791a80f1b5c7efdb4f1f1edd6e0958af69224f92545e89be38635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 43c | 605.97$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.97 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 596.02$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 407.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 236.19$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 202.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 180.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 177.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 57c | 176.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 168.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 67c | 148.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 134.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 37c | 129.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 129.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 124.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 121.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 108.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 104.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 62c | 98.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…25f9backed No | 60c | 97.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 88.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 87.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 86.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 81.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 78.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 77.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 55c | 73.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…0b9bbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 71.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 68.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 62.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 62.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…f767backed Yes | 33c | 60.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 56.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 52.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 48.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 43c | 47.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 48c | 46.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 42.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 38c | 42.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…1085backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…4815backed Yes | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 35.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 31.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 27.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 52c | 27.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 25.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 23.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 20.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…8b7ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 61c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 17.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.