Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b4d1cf0c42e3c6d1c9c4b3d4e12d4ce564fda1062fa472fb798499edbf6f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,165$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 9c | 914.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 7c | 769.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 4c | 601.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked Yes | 10c | 508.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 499.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 9c | 463.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 454.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 8c | 420.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 359.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 4c | 332.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 7c | 283.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 7c | 278.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 7c | 256.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 15c | 194.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 6c | 193.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 189.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 188.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 183.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 178$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 15c | 162.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 140.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 9c | 127.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 9c | 125.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 16c | 97.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…9688backed Yes | 15c | 80.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 23c | 77.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 24c | 62.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 61.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 40.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed No | 71c | 39.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…4da6backed No | 74c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 67c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.