Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7b18ab207105337b4dd03dcbc36fe2cf7934424e45000d4d3331e69c74621e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e1c…db61backed No | 31c | 3,882$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 45c | 508.76$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 61c | 410.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 21c | 386.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.81 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.49 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 18c | 294.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.15 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 275.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 23c | 218.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 31c | 212.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 211.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 23c | 173.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 49c | 169.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 27c | 169.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 23c | 161.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 33c | 153$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 151.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 27c | 150.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 137.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 13c | 130.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 12c | 123.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 110.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 109$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 100.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…898ebacked Yes | 70c | 99.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 95.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 94.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 92.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 88.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 85.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked Yes | 45c | 84.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 84.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 22c | 81.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 80.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 33c | 78.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 78.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 26c | 78.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 43c | 62.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 59.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 46c | 57.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 20c | 56.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 56.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 55c | 54.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 78c | 51.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 34c | 43.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 42.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 24c | 41.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 49c | 40.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 36.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 36.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked No | 46c | 33.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 35c | 32.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 31.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 61c | 27.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 74c | 27.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 58c | 27.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 45c | 27.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 27.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 24.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 80c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 18.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.