Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5087251b8a5c07cb083509ad8f4bcd1dcec90b5c50e952ceaa117bfc61f48608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 51c | 746.98$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 738.23$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.79 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 395.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 290.34$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 246.3$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 190.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 43c | 188.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 178$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 32c | 171.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 60c | 156.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 151.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 151.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 22c | 149.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 145.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 9c | 143.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 68c | 117.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 45c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 117$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 45c | 110.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 98.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 90.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 26c | 82.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 81.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 80.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 53c | 75.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 33c | 73.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 55c | 72.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 63.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 63.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 60.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 60.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 60.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 33c | 59.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed No | 52c | 58.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 49c | 57.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 55.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 55.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 55.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 31c | 54.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 52.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 25c | 46.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 40.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…f8f4backed Yes | 48c | 36.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 35.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 49c | 34.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 33.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 31.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 76c | 30.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 40c | 27.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 61c | 27.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 24.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 75c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 23.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 62c | 22.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 66c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 73c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.