NFL · resolved market
Scorigami in NFL Week 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d8e035b8c1a7ea71006cbc65b52205ff251ba68993ee7c4bd957e7d6666d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 32c | 9,034$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,102.98 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 68c | 6,089$4,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,136.89 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 68c | 4,483$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.3 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,883$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.05 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 67c | 1,650$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.5 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 32c | 840$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…fa37backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…9d51backed No | 70c | 700$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 68c | 600$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 68c | 500.16$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.63 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 71c | 480$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe52f…e6b0backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 31c | 291.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed Yes | 31c | 265.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 31c | 194.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6625…e343backed No | 70c | 143.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…bb66backed No | 71c | 141.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 22c | 127.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +234.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Yes | 32c | 94.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…59c9backed No | 70c | 91.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…ef60backed No | 70c | 90.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…fb23backed No | 70c | 85.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…a466backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…6473backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 33c | 47.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.