Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e5fd695215f57adc94fb184ea54e639bd6fa6a71e49666d7529adb442a51ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Ilbirs eSports, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 4,372$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 3,465$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.8 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 3,158$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.32 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Ilbirs eSports | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 1,676$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.82 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 1,327$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.7 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.33 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 818.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.01 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 776.78$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.94 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 557.12$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…6ba4backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 549.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 509.88$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 494.47$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.62 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 459$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 336$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 331$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 292.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 32c | 265.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 260.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 218.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 209.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 141.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 136.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 113.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 104.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 91.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 77.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 76.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 73.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 70.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 65.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 65.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 64.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 63.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 53.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…11b8backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 52.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 49.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 42.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 32c | 41.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 40.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 36.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 35.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 31.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…4869backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.