NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8961765254054367fac0344abba9189430c563504a2262211b123eaaf4a445b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 3,352$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.47 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 47c | 3,105$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.75 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Over | 54c | 1,779$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 53c | 1,754$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.26 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 1,736$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,509$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…c6d8backed Over | 53c | 603.09$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 47c | 599.89$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.95 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 52c | 577$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.96 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d17…bc4cbacked Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 274$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 219.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 45c | 199.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 57c | 176.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 169$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…59b1backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 45c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 53c | 56.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…0decbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 51.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 303 | 48.2%146 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…a75fbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9802…4c0dbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5this page
- Nuggets vs. PelicansNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.