NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1469124388efeb9df7a76852a7f6e08cd122bf9fa459abae5099993a57ccae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb07c…dc32backed Over | 48c | 5,703$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 4,999$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.56 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,306$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 52c | 2,941$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.46 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Under | 51c | 2,782$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.63 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 51c | 1,380$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.39 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 799.29$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 48c | 342.92$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.32 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…fae1backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5db…218ebacked Over | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…1cb5backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…c630backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 124$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 49.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5this page
- Nuggets vs. PelicansNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.