NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d8fa4339b98985f5d8b80f5d03f88bd431672828ee0d5d5f99d12cf2a73361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Nuggets, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 48c | 7,466$3,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,867.31 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Nuggets | 52c | 7,447$3,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,870 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Pelicans | 53c | 2,755$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…74ddbacked Nuggets | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 58c | 852.86$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pelicans | 48c | 661.54$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Nuggets | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Nuggets | 49c | 610$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 49c | 476.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pelicans | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Pelicans | 51c | 299.97$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Nuggets | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Nuggets | 49c | 132.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Nuggets | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 49c | 58.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Nuggets | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Nuggets | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Pelicans | 49c | 45.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Pelicans | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Nuggets | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Nuggets | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. PelicansNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.