Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8974eeef558d7fd06b18b272483a8d6276e8c1e1292761aec5c2777fa9168f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 9c | 433.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 73c | 329.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 67c | 294$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 289$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 26c | 167.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 163.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 75c | 133.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 66c | 129.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 33c | 100.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 93.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Yes | 76c | 79.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 61.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 71c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 73c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…be52backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.