Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89afd72290c38ca87c1cccd3f31eacc3947bcb885209a2b57263ef2e2dac01a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,489 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3973…1477backed Yes | 1c | 4,749$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 4c | 1,162$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 22c | 492.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 376.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 336.05$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 24c | 297.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 295.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 292$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 263.61$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 262.64$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 250.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 12c | 248$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 242.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 219.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 24c | 213.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…b118backed Yes | 24c | 209.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 207.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 22c | 193.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 22c | 184.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Yes | 15c | 166.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 21c | 149.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 14c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 143.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 139.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 12c | 139.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 26c | 138.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 137.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 130.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 25c | 124.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 118$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 113.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 24c | 108.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 102.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 15c | 98.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 95.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ad…12a5backed Yes | 29c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 30c | 85.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 74.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c49…1f02backed Yes | 19c | 71.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 70.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 24c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 26c | 63.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes | 19c | 63.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 20c | 59.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 27c | 57.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 56.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 19c | 54.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 78c | 51.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 20c | 48.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 43.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 78c | 39.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 27c | 37.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e7…db75backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 78c | 33.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 29.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…2fecbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…3f7fbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…f351backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…464abacked No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…d759backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 79c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.