TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,489 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3973…1477backed Yes1c4,749$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes10c1,300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.014,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes4c1,162$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes22c492.4$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.026033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c376.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No80c336.05$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes24c297.24$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c295.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.341,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes7c292$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.681,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c263.61$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.943,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No80c262.64$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes20c250.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b6…597bbacked Yes12c248$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes13c242.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.381,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes14c219.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6865627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes24c213.66$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2919426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7c…b118backed Yes24c209.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c207.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.772,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes22c193.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes22c184.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed Yes15c166.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No77c150$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9410154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes21c149.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4424414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes14c146$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9115923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c143.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.027,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes19c139.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes12c139.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.012825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes26c138.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.64332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c137.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.461,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes28c130.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.992,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes25c124.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes25c118$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.533243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes25c113.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes24c108.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1115626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes16c102.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084c…589ebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1318116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes20c99.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x766e…75f6backed Yes15c98.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8116518.2%30 W · 135 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes16c95.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ad…12a5backed Yes29c91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes30c85.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.246445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes23c85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes24c79.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.226236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes17c74.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c49…1f02backed Yes19c71.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c70.41$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes24c69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes26c63.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes19c63.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes20c59.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8733726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Yes27c57.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.28per pick46cpaid-74.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No69c56.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.221,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cc…102abacked Yes22c54.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes19c54.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1922236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c52.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed No78c51.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.266137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3717433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes20c48.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No78c43.05$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked No78c39.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.796053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes27c37.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e7…db75backed No75c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78563.5%54 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No78c33.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3111872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.041,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No79c29.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.275,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6726169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…e251backed No76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick78cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe719…2fecbacked No76c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac7…744dbacked No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No80c25.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0314071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c66…3f7fbacked No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No79c19.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1876371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f2…f351backed No75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x628a…464abacked No80c16.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dd…d759backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No79c12.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.587676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.