TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,654 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2357…2529backed Yes0c18,700$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.41711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-37.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb088…ee40backed Yes1c5,590$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.95200%0 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes1c4,774$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x740e…93a9backed Yes17c3,046$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.323748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes25c2,920$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.4542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c2,153$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.181,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7785…100dbacked Yes1c2,061$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.33728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes12c1,746$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9711930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes12c1,700$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.692,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes4c1,562$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0659923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c1,406$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7733620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes13c1,229$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.994,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb312…6092backed Yes2c1,210$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes13c814.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.295228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No76c544.71$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes8c429.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.11,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f94…727ebacked Yes27c421.39$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99cc…2dcabacked Yes25c407.5$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c401.81$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes10c400.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2365627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes18c371.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes15c300.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.622020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4546232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes16c295.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes12c264.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.713828.9%11 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Yes20c248.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506717.9%12 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c237.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes10c229.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.371,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c227.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.121,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c224.25$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.633,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes13c214$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8219426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes14c211.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.873920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes15c208.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.852326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83de…6cd2backed Yes8c190$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No76c181.64$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.761,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x687a…4e6bbacked Yes40c164.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c153.95$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.338,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe719…2fecbacked Yes17c149.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes15c136.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed Yes8c131.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.763917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58de…83afbacked No72c119.64$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.092572%18 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c119.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes10c117.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e1…5119backed Yes18c109.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc173…6342backed Yes16c105$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes16c104.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes16c99.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes21c94.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No63c92.03$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0749038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed Yes14c89.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa017…0f91backed Yes17c89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes19c86.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.582718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x174c…4351backed Yes18c83.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156028.3%17 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x332a…d155backed Yes18c80.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a10…b874backed Yes19c79.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes15c72.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes41c67.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5511546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No65c60.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2615136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes20c58.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes38c57.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099c…18e8backed Yes20c55.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.284818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No78c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4dc9…8eb8backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f03…2ddebacked Yes41c48.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a34…5d4dbacked Yes40c47.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x884f…c132backed Yes22c45.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea2d…1ad8backed No78c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.810100%10 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde26…99eabacked No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e84…d064backed No79c34.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.354163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No66c34.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed No60c33.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf50…0c8dbacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed No66c29.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.192050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf35b…8043backed No65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.981662.5%10 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7e…96d0backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.234457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked No66c18.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2519171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.831567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da9…7a30backed No67c14.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No80c12.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.55977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.