Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc9ec93ff058d6617141d4dab95ea234f0f79e3ef01f6afbae976ffd8300ce75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,654 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2357…2529backed Yes | 0c | 18,700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…ee40backed Yes | 1c | 5,590$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 4,774$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 17c | 3,046$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 25c | 2,920$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.45 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,153$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…100dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,061$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,746$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,700$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,562$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,406$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,229$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…6092backed Yes | 2c | 1,210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 13c | 814.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 544.71$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 429.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…727ebacked Yes | 27c | 421.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cc…2dcabacked Yes | 25c | 407.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 401.81$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 10c | 400.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 371.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 15c | 300.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 295.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 12c | 264.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 20c | 248.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 237.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 229.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 227.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 224.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 13c | 214$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 14c | 211.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 15c | 208.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…6cd2backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 181.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…4e6bbacked Yes | 40c | 164.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 153.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…2fecbacked Yes | 17c | 149.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 15c | 136.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 8c | 131.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 72c | 119.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 119.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 117.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…5119backed Yes | 18c | 109.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…6342backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 16c | 104.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 21c | 94.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 63c | 92.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 14c | 89.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa017…0f91backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 19c | 86.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 18c | 83.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…d155backed Yes | 18c | 80.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…b874backed Yes | 19c | 79.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 15c | 72.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 41c | 67.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 65c | 60.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 20c | 58.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes | 38c | 57.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 20c | 55.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…8eb8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…2ddebacked Yes | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…5d4dbacked Yes | 40c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 22c | 45.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…1ad8backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 79c | 34.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 34.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed No | 60c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…0c8dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…96d0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 66c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…7a30backed No | 67c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 80c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.