Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93251cc372bc58e690d9edb8502ce948891169d721278a01f9cfa3b3fcc392c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,549 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 4c | 2,304$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 2,072$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 1,023$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 12c | 881.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked No | 3c | 840$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 800.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 2c | 798.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 721.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 5c | 559.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 48c | 403.79$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.85 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 368.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.03 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 359.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 27c | 344.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 13c | 316.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 38c | 304.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.63 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 7c | 285.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 267.59$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 80c | 262.71$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 40c | 250.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 250.63$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 76c | 250.23$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 237.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 225.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 222.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 24c | 222.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 220.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…5beabacked No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 213.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 19c | 210.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.91 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 55c | 204.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 53c | 176.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 173$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 170.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 167.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 45c | 154.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 13c | 152.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 16c | 151.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 137.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 78c | 127.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 122.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 52c | 120.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 61c | 113.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 26c | 109.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 109.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 24c | 99.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 30c | 98.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 50c | 97.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 48c | 95.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 64c | 93.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 32c | 92.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 89.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 76c | 87.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 87.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 41c | 84.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 82.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 80.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 76.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 68.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 22c | 68.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 72c | 67.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 40c | 65.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 67c | 58.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d9…c748backed Yes | 31c | 53.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 42c | 53.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 29c | 45.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked No | 76c | 45.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 72c | 45.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 27c | 44.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 43.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 77c | 43.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 42c | 43.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 48c | 41.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…10e8backed Yes | 27c | 41.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 67c | 40.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52da…8b0cbacked No | 72c | 39.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…6ae0backed No | 75c | 35.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.