Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3bc5ff5c4e693375e196a0bbbe523abcb02cc6cbc941e51b87186691e718fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed Yes | 9c | 48,000$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,175.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 2,210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,733$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,691$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 984.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 682.65$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 610.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 5c | 544.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…100dbacked Yes | 15c | 481.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 26c | 456.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 17c | 409.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 5c | 375.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…0f8cbacked No | 79c | 365.04$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 44c | 352.72$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.7 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 45c | 329$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 9c | 312.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 290.65$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…7810backed Yes | 5c | 283.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 11c | 281.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 7c | 263.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 252.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…0378backed Yes | 12c | 245.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 243.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 239.58$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 22c | 227.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 214.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 29c | 211.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 28c | 209.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 195.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 188.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 168.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 13c | 165.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 153.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked Yes | 18c | 141$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 128.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…727ebacked Yes | 27c | 125.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 117.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 30c | 101.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…e247backed Yes | 21c | 98.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 25c | 98.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 70c | 97.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…1477backed Yes | 48c | 95.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 25c | 91.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 12c | 86.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 19c | 80.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 28c | 72.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 17c | 71.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…a59bbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…5d4dbacked Yes | 22c | 66.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 66.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 79c | 63.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed No | 80c | 54.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked No | 75c | 47.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 37c | 46.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 23c | 45.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 53c | 42.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…66d6backed Yes | 25c | 40.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 39.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 38.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 77c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf774…d2f0backed Yes | 28c | 35.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…db50backed No | 74c | 35.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 30.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…97bcbacked No | 74c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…112bbacked No | 74c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 57c | 22.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 21.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…322dbacked No | 77c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…c744backed No | 74c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.