Tennis · resolved market
Set 4 Winner: Rinderknech vs Djokovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b16e2b23078b2c7b346435199a5a78d3d595f9faaa35951cb13a568a9692c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Djokovicof Rinderknech, Djokovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Rinderknech | 34c | 592.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.61 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Djokovic | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Rinderknech | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Rinderknech | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Djokovic | 58c | 140.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Djokovic | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9321backed Rinderknech | 44c | 131.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Djokovic | 55c | 107.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Rinderknech | 44c | 68.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed Rinderknech | 35c | 52.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…6bf6backed Djokovic | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Rinderknech | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Rinderknech | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Rinderknech | 52c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Djokovic | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 4 Winner: Rinderknech vs Djokovicthis page
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set 2 Winner: Rinderknech vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)Djokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Rinderknech (+2.5)Rinderknech won
- Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak DjokovicNovak Djokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.