Tennis · resolved market
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c9de234078503b9cd4a1dd6db0fe1e898ef052034b90631553df2ec510a79b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 47c | 571.75$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.81 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Under 3.5 | 6c | 457.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over 3.5 | 53c | 442.53$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over 3.5 | 49c | 271.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Over 3.5 | 51c | 127.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 101.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Over 3.5 | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under 3.5 | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Over 3.5 | 54c | 91.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 48c | 53.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…7c7dbacked Over 3.5 | 51c | 45.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 3.5 | 49c | 45.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 3.5 | 48c | 44.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…e91fbacked Over 3.5 | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Over 3.5 | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Djokovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set 2 Winner: Rinderknech vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set 4 Winner: Rinderknech vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)Djokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Rinderknech (+2.5)Rinderknech won
- Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak DjokovicNovak Djokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.