Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89eff3510221b22d1aef2edca4765735bf13b1cafd0cdc432dbb13df2ab80faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fda…1407backed Yes | 39c | 464.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 417.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 228.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 180.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 158.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 156.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 41c | 154.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 72c | 153.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…8dd8backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 32c | 141.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 135.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 36c | 133$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 113.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 111.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 111.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 110.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 95.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 93.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 81.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 23c | 78.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 69.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 35c | 67.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 65.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 61.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 25c | 61.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…fab1backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 59.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 36c | 55.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…5b5cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 52.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 52.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 49.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 47.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 29c | 45.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 34c | 44.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 38.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 36.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 36.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ddc0backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 47c | 27.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 23.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 60c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.