Tennis · resolved market
Hobart International: Tatjana Maria vs Anna Bondar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f1306034b5d27b37b47e21d8542fcca7fcb7f1897ad7344ff9f9053e281f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bondarof Maria, Bondar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bondar | 71c | 8,743$6,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.78 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Maria | 13c | 6,502$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.39 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed Maria | 16c | 3,789$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 365 | 54.2%198 W · 167 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maria | 18c | 3,500$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.38 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Bondar | 52c | 3,210$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.89 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Maria | 37c | 2,876$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.8 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Maria | 12c | 2,690$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.92 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maria | 26c | 2,392$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.76 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…c9c4backed Maria | 2c | 2,235$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bondar | 79c | 1,926$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.8 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maria | 17c | 1,915$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Maria | 37c | 1,633$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Maria | 17c | 1,148$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.09 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bondar | 76c | 1,090$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.91 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bondar | 77c | 1,068$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maria | 27c | 614.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.41 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Maria | 18c | 600$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bondar | 70c | 513.87$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Maria | 14c | 487.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Maria | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Maria | 38c | 449.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Maria | 49c | 408.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Maria | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Maria | 49c | 352.57$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Maria | 47c | 321.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Maria | 33c | 314.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Maria | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Maria | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Maria | 20c | 282.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…e23dbacked Bondar | 52c | 257$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Maria | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Maria | 28c | 207.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Maria | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Maria | 23c | 189.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Maria | 22c | 176.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…6678backed Bondar | 65c | 154.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Maria | 10c | 128.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Maria | 26c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…1250backed Maria | 12c | 101.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bondar | 76c | 100.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Maria | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Maria | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb05…fae9backed Bondar | 55c | 76.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Bondar | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Bondar | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Maria | 29c | 69.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Maria | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…70e3backed Maria | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Bondar | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…8adcbacked Bondar | 50c | 53.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Maria | 31c | 53.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Bondar | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…ad8abacked Bondar | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Maria | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Maria | 45c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…24f4backed Maria | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Bondar | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…4eb9backed Bondar | 76c | 28.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Bondar | 53c | 28.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Bondar | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Bondar | 53c | 25.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Bondar | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Bondar | 70c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Bondar | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Bondar | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…fa69backed Bondar | 75c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hobart International: Tatjana Maria vs Anna Bondarthis page
- Maria vs. Bondar: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Maria vs. Bondar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Maria vs. Bondar: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Bondar (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)Bondar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.