Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89ff8d21c9af33b9376e442ff7825ddc923309bc77e5cd2227ad4a2af31cc8ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 12c | 416.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.65 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 386.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 80c | 376.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 361.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 342.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 308.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 280.81$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 253.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 17c | 175$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 17c | 161.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 154.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 77c | 140.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 112.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…1ef3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 15c | 97.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 12c | 93.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 91.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 13c | 86.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 41c | 67.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 66.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 22c | 62.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 70c | 58.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 75c | 54.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 47.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 31c | 43.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 61c | 37.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 58c | 35.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 71c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 72c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.