Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1555f2cb62833bf912b13030a75cbf01e167fb75febedc43be1c3cd979e11e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 30c | 433.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 320.46$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 26c | 267.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 11c | 260.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 256.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 202.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 181$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 170.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 143.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 136.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 121.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 120.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 117.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 37c | 109.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 108.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 12c | 102.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 13c | 86.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 69c | 86.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 71.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 27c | 67.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 74c | 64.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 59.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 63c | 57.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 54.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 49.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 46.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 39.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 27.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…6e0cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 74c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8d5backed No | 69c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.