Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a7d6ccb9c537e49c664caf886cf1632ba1cf51974f0c66ee2e63bee6e74cf1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,182$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 32c | 850.71$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 687.9$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 468$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 429.71$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 328.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 34c | 248.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 229.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 214$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 207.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 192$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 181$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 166.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 10c | 161.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 160.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 63c | 159.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 153.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 130.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 124$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 112.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked Yes | 35c | 106.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 105.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 98.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 96.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 89.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 31c | 78.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 67c | 75.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 71.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 59.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 23c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 55.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 53.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 52.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 52.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 63c | 39.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 60c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 31c | 37.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 34c | 35.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…46a8backed No | 65c | 35.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 29.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 65c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.