Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a38d2dcb4f2a941ae44b5cc065051389c3f12d1527f8072d4af84b3083263ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Hive, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb877…4601backed Hive | 76c | 1,340$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked PuckChamp | 50c | 1,273$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.44 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Hive | 49c | 1,000$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.57 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hive | 64c | 896.15$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.17 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PuckChamp | 24c | 804.33$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.21 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PuckChamp | 41c | 757.61$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Hive | 51c | 695.99$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.04 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hive | 48c | 499.79$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed PuckChamp | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed PuckChamp | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Hive | 50c | 396.03$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hive | 50c | 256.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked PuckChamp | 22c | 247.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked PuckChamp | 37c | 236$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 233.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed PuckChamp | 19c | 225.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked PuckChamp | 51c | 209$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed PuckChamp | 49c | 206.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Hive | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked PuckChamp | 36c | 166.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked PuckChamp | 35c | 165.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Hive | 75c | 162.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed PuckChamp | 50c | 159.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed PuckChamp | 49c | 153.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp | 39c | 149.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PuckChamp | 47c | 137.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hive | 52c | 136.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Hive | 51c | 132.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 46c | 128.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 128.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Hive | 78c | 126.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed PuckChamp | 49c | 123.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp | 18c | 120.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Hive | 60c | 114.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed PuckChamp | 24c | 104.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed PuckChamp | 51c | 97.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked PuckChamp | 35c | 93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed PuckChamp | 49c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp | 24c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Hive | 54c | 77.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hive | 66c | 71.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked PuckChamp | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked PuckChamp | 47c | 69.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked PuckChamp | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Hive | 76c | 52.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…4db4backed PuckChamp | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked PuckChamp | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive | 51c | 47.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Hive | 53c | 47.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed PuckChamp | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…b34cbacked PuckChamp | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Hive | 47c | 38.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…89adbacked PuckChamp | 53c | 37.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed PuckChamp | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Hive | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…724cbacked Hive | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Hive | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed PuckChamp | 42c | 28.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hive | 46c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed Hive | 50c | 23.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed PuckChamp | 49c | 21.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hive | 76c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 1 WinnerHive won
- Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerHive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.