TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hiveof Hive, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Hive54c9,351$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,287.3347646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Hive65c7,498$4,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,613.231,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Hive58c3,569$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.4432549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed PuckChamp47c2,767$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.0414825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PuckChamp38c2,619$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.5671143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed PuckChamp40c2,499$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.1645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked PuckChamp41c2,488$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.7110244.1%45 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp32c1,492$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.2589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Hive75c1,481$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.417965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PuckChamp38c1,349$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.242,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed Hive59c1,244$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.122548%12 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed PuckChamp44c1,189$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7250353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed PuckChamp37c970.4$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.139744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Hive59c952.94$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.3347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp41c941.12$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed PuckChamp45c888.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp28c832.35$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Hive68c750.29$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.1250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed PuckChamp44c706.51$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.6247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed PuckChamp45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked PuckChamp46c560.2$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26028145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked PuckChamp33c547.14$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5640644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Hive56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7148054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Hive64c511.02$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2248057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp38c506.96$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.151,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PuckChamp35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Hive59c500$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.721,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Hive60c494.13$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.651,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PuckChamp53c470.23$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9961057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed PuckChamp41c428.95$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17428252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Hive55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PuckChamp40c389.86$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.991,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Hive58c378$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.763237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed PuckChamp10c371.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.197733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed PuckChamp45c324.44$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14619458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked PuckChamp45c314.89$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.714655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed PuckChamp10c311.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.663323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked PuckChamp46c310.83$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3258746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked PuckChamp46c310$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.544049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp37c302.49$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.421,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Hive66c290.13$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.651457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked PuckChamp36c288.84$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.563441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked PuckChamp45c287.22$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1130146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp5c263.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7378516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Hive64c249.98$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9932756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked PuckChamp45c248.89$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11240442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PuckChamp44c239.47$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1858943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked PuckChamp45c226$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5913647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed PuckChamp45c221.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Hive58c209.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.258152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed PuckChamp36c207.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7774549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed PuckChamp45c195.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8826147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Hive52c190.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7857455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp44c167$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0456945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked PuckChamp30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1914336.4%52 W · 91 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46fa…97fcbacked PuckChamp43c148.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed PuckChamp45c146.86$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0919249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked PuckChamp35c141$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.472846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…f273backed Hive62c139$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Hive66c125$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.124459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed PuckChamp32c123.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2119449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Hive67c121.45$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc169…8677backed PuckChamp42c119.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked PuckChamp34c113.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0115342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed PuckChamp39c110.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.434041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed PuckChamp40c102.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4128252.1%147 W · 135 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Hive62c98.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3238759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp43c97.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed PuckChamp38c95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4217443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp39c94.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked PuckChamp27c92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6368345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Hive59c89.13$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5581345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed PuckChamp36c85.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8110138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp29c85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7153538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Hive64c83$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9779341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…8063backed PuckChamp49c78.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.674928.6%14 W · 35 L-6.9wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked PuckChamp45c75.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0515551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed PuckChamp44c70.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1819053.2%101 W · 89 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed PuckChamp41c70.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.079658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked PuckChamp48c61.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Hive66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5518356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Hive63c53.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.931866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed PuckChamp43c50.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5133265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked PuckChamp42c43.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.224546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked PuckChamp36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.154548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x001b…698bbacked Hive60c38.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf8…5d40backed PuckChamp45c38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked PuckChamp43c36.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.518961.8%55 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb09f…6382backed PuckChamp30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55347.2%25 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked PuckChamp38c33.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7414848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked PuckChamp42c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.887538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa574…4596backed PuckChamp38c31.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Hive61c30.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7193546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Hive66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212055%66 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed Hive63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.28053.8%43 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Hive52c24.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8666947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c09…0fd5backed Hive72c19.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.