Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe61cfb767519ef32ac21006b4caeb2bc9aee66295aa534159bbe54a658421bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Hive, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf201…527ebacked PuckChamp | 50c | 4,039$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.88 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked PuckChamp | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.96 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Hive | 48c | 3,210$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.2 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed PuckChamp | 50c | 2,831$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.46 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hive | 51c | 2,065$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.59 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed PuckChamp | 53c | 1,332$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.42 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive | 53c | 1,045$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.35 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Hive | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Hive | 53c | 906.26$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.09 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hive | 49c | 762.05$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.86 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Hive | 64c | 694.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.63 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed PuckChamp | 47c | 676$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.2 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Hive | 52c | 656.72$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.89 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Hive | 46c | 653.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.45 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hive | 48c | 500$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Hive | 44c | 468.79$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.75 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Hive | 43c | 461.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.18 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked PuckChamp | 54c | 360$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…2a00backed Hive | 46c | 350.81$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed PuckChamp | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Hive | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Hive | 49c | 290.5$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hive | 46c | 252.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp | 55c | 249.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Hive | 46c | 240$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Hive | 45c | 219$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Hive | 46c | 214$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp | 41c | 205.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…b6d8backed PuckChamp | 48c | 204.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed PuckChamp | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Hive | 45c | 198.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Hive | 49c | 192.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed PuckChamp | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Hive | 49c | 170.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed PuckChamp | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Hive | 51c | 162.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Hive | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Hive | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Hive | 46c | 122.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Hive | 53c | 122$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 49c | 107.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Hive | 47c | 107.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Hive | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hive | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp | 45c | 98.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Hive | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Hive | 47c | 85.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Hive | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Hive | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed PuckChamp | 56c | 76.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked PuckChamp | 47c | 63.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Hive | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Hive | 49c | 55.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Hive | 46c | 50.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Hive | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed PuckChamp | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…698bbacked PuckChamp | 50c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Hive | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…8063backed Hive | 43c | 39.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed PuckChamp | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked PuckChamp | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…8e65backed PuckChamp | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed PuckChamp | 50c | 34.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Hive | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Hive | 62c | 31.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Hive | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hive | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed PuckChamp | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group AHive won
- Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerHive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.