MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a7b9b83a0d8f15535096ad24cd8a832a91cb611462e6ae800b66d30a65c0604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 1,053$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.95 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed No | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 46c | 518.02$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 456$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.14 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 51c | 407.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 375$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 53c | 280.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 54c | 161.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 46c | 130.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 51c | 127.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…7802backed No | 41c | 121.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 39c | 97.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 42c | 96.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 54c | 68.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5798…8f26backed No | 35c | 32.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…b865backed No | 35c | 32.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148b…4ce7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…4ecabacked No | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.