TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: IMHOWeRGOAT vs 300FPS (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #8 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
IMHOWeRGOATof IMHOWeRGOAT, 300FPS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8f1…fee6backed IMHOWeRGOAT63c41,421$25,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,453.0215750.3%79 W · 78 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…523dbacked IMHOWeRGOAT50c15,959$7,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,058.41291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.35per pick57cpaid+73.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x14d6…987fbacked 300FPS4c14,985$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked 300FPS47c14,811$6,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,919.865759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed 300FPS53c13,072$6,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,935.89063.3%57 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3842…9700backed 300FPS11c12,897$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed 300FPS36c11,306$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.7649841.8%208 W · 290 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked 300FPS16c9,064$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.4635347.9%169 W · 184 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed 300FPS6c7,218$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.8232748.6%159 W · 168 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4994…3e36backed 300FPS51c5,665$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.713823.7%9 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked IMHOWeRGOAT54c4,828$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.41,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…d632backed IMHOWeRGOAT42c4,523$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.611782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed 300FPS2c3,621$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1521350.2%107 W · 106 L+16.0wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x65c0…7003backed 300FPS10c3,494$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.582842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked IMHOWeRGOAT62c3,340$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.2116343.6%71 W · 92 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed 300FPS14c3,184$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.5449050.6%248 W · 242 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x452d…c27ebacked 300FPS41c2,803$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c57…7db2backed IMHOWeRGOAT44c2,254$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.191275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 300FPS13c2,196$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.482,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked 300FPS59c2,020$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.2218135.9%65 W · 116 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31e5…0e95backed 300FPS48c1,979$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed 300FPS14c1,871$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1454938.4%211 W · 338 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0917…48aebacked 300FPS35c1,788$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.87944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d7…a08abacked 300FPS58c1,769$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.161457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5c5ebacked 300FPS46c1,643$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked IMHOWeRGOAT49c1,388$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.182,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed 300FPS58c1,373$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.8730949.2%152 W · 157 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…9a43backed IMHOWeRGOAT64c1,146$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.228369.9%58 W · 25 L+17.4wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+42.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed 300FPS9c989.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1833327.9%93 W · 240 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed 300FPS15c915.62$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4787330.9%270 W · 603 L-62.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x792c…d2ecbacked 300FPS51c899.98$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.993262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf06…391fbacked 300FPS45c882.26$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe320…b7a5backed 300FPS44c879.19$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f9…5e1abacked 300FPS45c815.42$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37d…c735backed 300FPS25c726.22$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.576253.2%33 W · 29 L+9.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+172.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed IMHOWeRGOAT68c667.02$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.065,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed 300FPS27c603.29$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4217060.6%103 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5657…42a6backed 300FPS5c577.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.867748.1%37 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ee…a0bbbacked 300FPS43c575.66$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.974459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb045…4947backed 300FPS48c551.2$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed IMHOWeRGOAT56c543.07$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.051,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf800…e928backed 300FPS57c527.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007758.4%45 W · 32 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed IMHOWeRGOAT51c511.6$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.660755%334 W · 273 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked IMHOWeRGOAT63c506.79$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.343,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked 300FPS14c503.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7610921.1%23 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed 300FPS7c491.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0413337.6%50 W · 83 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd8…f533backed 300FPS48c465.65$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3672…5277backed 300FPS48c465.11$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a7…9133backed 300FPS48c464.84$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6865…7b0cbacked 300FPS48c464.71$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed 300FPS12c442.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.724822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaad…29e0backed IMHOWeRGOAT50c430$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed 300FPS28c400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0926939%105 W · 164 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked 300FPS58c391.67$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7511460.5%69 W · 45 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd426…a727backed 300FPS48c387.98$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe186…bf80backed 300FPS48c383.61$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x060f…7eeebacked 300FPS48c382.93$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked 300FPS33c337.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6218445.7%84 W · 100 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb733…0261backed 300FPS48c335.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff6…1963backed 300FPS55c333$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.154560%27 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed 300FPS55c325.22$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed 300FPS42c324.73$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9434356.6%194 W · 149 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed 300FPS47c319.68$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5512254.9%67 W · 55 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed 300FPS4c288.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.589729.9%29 W · 68 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b88…16e6backed 300FPS9c286.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9815823.4%37 W · 121 L-18.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked IMHOWeRGOAT66c272$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6874633.4%249 W · 497 L-48.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73a5…95febacked 300FPS8c253.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e2b…29f8backed 300FPS48c252.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked 300FPS21c219.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.222,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked IMHOWeRGOAT48c209.82$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.968943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ff…3814backed IMHOWeRGOAT45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed 300FPS17c197$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.772,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 300FPS15c193.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.365,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked 300FPS14c190.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.827838.1%106 W · 172 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x669d…88e5backed 300FPS50c172.23$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.491827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6202…c297backed 300FPS60c170.34$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.24841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed IMHOWeRGOAT44c170$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3528743.2%124 W · 163 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0284…97f6backed 300FPS45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.55251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9f…75cabacked 300FPS67c149.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fa2…6df9backed IMHOWeRGOAT67c146.76$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0916245.7%74 W · 88 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed 300FPS11c139.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.337837.2%29 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked IMHOWeRGOAT58c137.93$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9338269.4%265 W · 117 L+30.8wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed 300FPS11c126$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.866743.3%29 W · 38 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc06…7f72backed 300FPS25c111$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.23438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28e4…fe39backed 300FPS47c110.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce3…7537backed 300FPS59c110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.93554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef30…e949backed IMHOWeRGOAT56c107$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.45470.4%38 W · 16 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fb0…6197backed 300FPS59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598958.4%52 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked IMHOWeRGOAT41c99.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5922056.8%125 W · 95 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked 300FPS21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.472153.7%387 W · 334 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked IMHOWeRGOAT53c98.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.512,08447%979 W · 1,105 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32fabacked 300FPS48c96.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed 300FPS41c96.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.753948.7%19 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick30cpaid+67.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked IMHOWeRGOAT49c96$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.964557.8%26 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa16b…c4f0backed IMHOWeRGOAT50c93.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.632759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked IMHOWeRGOAT64c92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9822737.4%85 W · 142 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed IMHOWeRGOAT71c88.24$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.375442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c6…ea15backed 300FPS11c88.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d37…ba9ebacked 300FPS57c82.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed 300FPS24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.218351.4%94 W · 89 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.