Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8e013e632267ea100491d57c18cdb5aede785e017c5265ecaad25130c72266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 734.27$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 297.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 201.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 191.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 169.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 168.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 46c | 166.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 158.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 155.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 145$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 144.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 135.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 133$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 132.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 114.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 111$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 65c | 105.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 101.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 70c | 68.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 63.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 33c | 59.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…c80ebacked Yes | 48c | 52.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 50.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 50.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 43.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 59c | 41.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 72c | 38.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 68c | 38.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 35.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 60c | 35.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 35c | 34.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 26.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 23.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 19.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.