TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
paiNof TYLOO, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$868,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$971,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $868,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 645 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed TYLOO45c47,704$21,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,520.1923839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed paiN55c40,000$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.9972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked paiN73c38,099$27,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,176.3922468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed TYLOO48c35,278$16,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,772.933343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed TYLOO44c29,991$13,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,195.9788242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed paiN60c23,690$14,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,504.4512353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked TYLOO44c22,591$9,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,883.8375652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TYLOO51c18,781$9,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,578.2576058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked paiN57c18,250$10,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,920.4822354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked paiN57c17,354$9,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,425.4941040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked TYLOO44c17,215$7,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,651.3617853.9%96 W · 82 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed TYLOO34c15,064$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.861,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TYLOO37c14,110$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,150.466,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TYLOO35c12,919$4,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,457.393,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked TYLOO35c10,327$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.762,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked paiN56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4007441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TYLOO41c9,000$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.9766851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked TYLOO34c8,586$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.193,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked TYLOO35c8,266$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.399232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed TYLOO29c8,205$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.351942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked TYLOO31c8,099$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.581,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked paiN56c8,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26c5…8813backed paiN54c7,865$4,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.09944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed TYLOO32c7,778$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.8187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed paiN53c7,701$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,600.9548350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TYLOO31c7,357$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.854,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed TYLOO38c7,000$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.9530340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked TYLOO47c6,970$3,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,275.8938358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed paiN57c6,789$3,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,942.8610969.7%76 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed TYLOO43c5,808$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.4625355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed paiN80c5,492$4,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.2737157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed paiN56c5,482$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.169550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked paiN54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30012956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed TYLOO46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9711439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TYLOO22c4,961$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.152,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed TYLOO46c4,949$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.720448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked paiN55c4,712$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.335940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed paiN52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.9642142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked paiN56c4,289$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.61,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed paiN57c4,265$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.0115052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked paiN63c4,190$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.5446165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7093…0632backed paiN49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed TYLOO42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6806036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked TYLOO50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked paiN56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.1117540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed TYLOO45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.994643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed paiN58c3,747$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.3936450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed paiN55c3,636$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.3622750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed paiN56c3,571$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.4333359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e3…22cbbacked TYLOO43c3,513$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.913438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TYLOO48c3,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68064852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed TYLOO53c3,486$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.7814839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked TYLOO48c3,396$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed TYLOO43c3,395$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46234146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed TYLOO18c3,365$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.561729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e5…f069backed TYLOO67c3,315$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.8514763.9%94 W · 53 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed paiN50c3,177$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.817450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TYLOO27c3,134$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.351,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked paiN56c3,005$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.2727552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked TYLOO50c2,987$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4985536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed paiN57c2,856$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.3445646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed paiN68c2,747$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.4640048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked paiN55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.278748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed TYLOO43c2,714$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.8152951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked TYLOO40c2,562$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.9766446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed TYLOO22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x308d…3519backed paiN66c2,497$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.43560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked paiN75c2,456$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.5641069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…0b63backed paiN42c2,309$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.572259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TYLOO29c2,291$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.245,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x938f…94aabacked paiN79c2,268$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.413100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed TYLOO45c2,245$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.1597040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa6…9d71backed paiN56c2,232$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.144856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked paiN58c2,200$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9311,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed paiN64c2,036$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.3737440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked paiN77c2,001$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.1663541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked TYLOO49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98043640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed TYLOO44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88011434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked paiN51c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed TYLOO45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9955845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed TYLOO23c1,995$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2725747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed TYLOO30c1,922$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7829831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed paiN60c1,897$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.8945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d1…7ab6backed paiN53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.794546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed TYLOO37c1,864$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.8542638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed paiN54c1,863$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.3523354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed TYLOO41c1,838$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.6741850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked paiN55c1,800$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81019346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked paiN56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7125261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked paiN65c1,765$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.472,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b4…7056backed TYLOO44c1,755$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.033441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked TYLOO52c1,750$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9101,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed TYLOO38c1,750$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed paiN59c1,724$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.3724262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed TYLOO45c1,717$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.7918547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed paiN60c1,647$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.74445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd57b…7358backed paiN56c1,614$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.745766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed paiN57c1,602$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.675950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed TYLOO36c1,589$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.0424339.5%96 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed TYLOO45c1,560$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.996136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.