Olympics · resolved market
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ac60cd093182bebcc8efa37b3bad8714a4df73fc114f7ed7b3a83b4b321d409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swedenof Sweden, Latvia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $601,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Latvia | 10c | 155,000$15,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,499.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Latvia | 9c | 55,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…e244backed Latvia | 10c | 40,989$4,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Latvia | 9c | 40,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Latvia | 9c | 25,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Latvia | 9c | 18,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Latvia | 1c | 13,651$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.87 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…cdafbacked Latvia | 0c | 10,049$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Latvia | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Latvia | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed Latvia | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0268…09f7backed Latvia | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Latvia | 10c | 8,606$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Latvia | 10c | 6,938$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Latvia | 10c | 6,120$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Latvia | 10c | 5,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Latvia | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Latvia | 10c | 4,250$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Latvia | 7c | 4,022$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.87 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Latvia | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Latvia | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…8c89backed Latvia | 1c | 3,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Latvia | 1c | 2,760$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Latvia | 8c | 2,200$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…3864backed Latvia | 10c | 2,200$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Latvia | 10c | 2,125$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Latvia | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…7584backed Latvia | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Latvia | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Latvia | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Latvia | 7c | 1,500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Latvia | 2c | 1,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d07…1562backed Latvia | 1c | 1,288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Latvia | 10c | 1,281$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Latvia | 8c | 1,048$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8927…f5c6backed Latvia | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Latvia | 7c | 904$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…4af9backed Latvia | 2c | 829.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…e84fbacked Latvia | 2c | 504.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…fc12backed Latvia | 10c | 499$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Latvia | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Latvia | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Latvia | 19c | 367.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…a203backed Latvia | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…bd0bbacked Latvia | 11c | 289$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Latvia | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Latvia | 10c | 254.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Latvia | 10c | 227.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cf…ca78backed Latvia | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d32…b029backed Latvia | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e00…1d76backed Latvia | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Latvia | 11c | 184.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Latvia | 10c | 181.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a82…7547backed Latvia | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4034…f52cbacked Latvia | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…81c5backed Latvia | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Latvia | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…0199backed Latvia | 8c | 145.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Latvia | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Latvia | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…d936backed Latvia | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Latvia | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…c1d5backed Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…5309backed Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…a50bbacked Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…1deebacked Latvia | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.