La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8af08755f04cc5f3f8c6e6273e6e7f96295394ea5e906c23fc8d37d35238a2d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 2,636$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.05 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 19c | 981.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.83 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 20c | 473.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.88 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 24c | 400$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.62 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 75c | 378.23$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 349.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.32 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 58c | 297.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.64 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 76c | 179.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 79c | 177.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 20c | 149.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 34c | 148.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…6deebacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 23c | 131.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 113.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 68.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 24c | 67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Over | 70c | 65.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +450.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…511ebacked Under | 68c | 59.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Under | 40c | 58.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 35c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 55.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 42c | 47.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…cd9ebacked Under | 78c | 31.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 65c | 26.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -11.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.