Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b43df0d987714031233e8658fa0b38d77401e1ee8a32a9ac3e11db66a670b5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 11c | 955.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 58c | 871.32$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 6c | 738.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 79c | 613.48$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 451.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 5c | 425.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 199.59$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 6c | 177.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 20c | 173.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 66c | 171.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 8c | 127$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 99.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 53c | 76.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 47c | 68.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 60.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 31c | 52.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 73c | 30.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 25.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…3c07backed Yes | 54c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbd…f2c6backed No | 75c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.