Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3119e9ee060e6ca1b73e253a9f7cece83082c133f1c466d45f90fed7ca99630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 65c | 1,498$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.42 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 902.99$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 482.73$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 67c | 418$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 358.04$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 170.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 138.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 135$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 128.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 124.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 38c | 109.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 37c | 97.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 92.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 89.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 60c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 72.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 68.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 68.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 58.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 54.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 61c | 43.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 37.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 42c | 29.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 56c | 19.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.