Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564928e8e55c6d89b19f3982f26afcb2d5cba6739cf5c04c80f898c926b7611b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 1,595$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.61 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 1,158$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 53c | 899.64$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.31 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 638.58$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 583.31$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.32 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 45c | 427$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 41c | 345$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 341.86$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 296.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 45c | 281.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 73c | 250.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 41c | 250.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 211.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 209.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 166.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 148.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 147.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 139.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 115.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 44c | 113.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 107.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 101.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 46c | 100.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 86.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 66c | 75.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 70.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 20c | 63.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…ad08backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 53.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 57c | 53.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 49.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 53c | 49.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 48.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 55c | 43.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 49c | 43.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 43.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 42.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 50c | 41.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 57c | 40.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 47c | 39.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 37.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 32.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 29.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 55c | 28.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 76c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 57c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.