Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b5cf0168fdfcff2b28e97e3f66a645e4b8633de0ebeb6ee21972b5369296ab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RB Leipzigof RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed RB Leipzig | 23c | 6,112$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,680.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 76c | 2,895$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…ae44backed RB Leipzig | 23c | 1,461$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 72c | 1,100$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.98 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed RB Leipzig | 13c | 473.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.04 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 461.89$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.94 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 76c | 435.27$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.99 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed RB Leipzig | 14c | 243.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.73 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed RB Leipzig | 17c | 214.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked RB Leipzig | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 76c | 149.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed RB Leipzig | 28c | 130.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 80c | 117.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed RB Leipzig | 18c | 112.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 108$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 97.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked RB Leipzig | 28c | 95.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 73c | 74.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 75c | 72.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 55.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 78c | 52.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed RB Leipzig | 27c | 51.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed RB Leipzig | 28c | 49.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked RB Leipzig | 28c | 45.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 72c | 43.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 71c | 43.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 75c | 39.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed RB Leipzig | 80c | 37.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 34.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.