Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55b7b42b1e6331a1a1576ee8b37be4b05c07435266a71eba9ba5454ab1c35fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 13,179$3,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,197.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 17c | 6,054$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.74 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 72c | 2,873$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 2,665$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 1c | 2,352$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…c32ebacked Under | 59c | 2,138$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 19c | 1,482$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.61 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 50c | 1,334$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.86 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 18c | 1,177$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.94 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 1,087$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.64 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 15c | 1,019$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…b7c8backed Under | 71c | 904.65$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 14c | 612.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 29c | 489.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…44fbbacked Under | 73c | 486.53$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 71c | 380$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…2a69backed Over | 27c | 356.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 30c | 324.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38ab…bd88backed Under | 76c | 315.5$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 284$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 28c | 282.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 18c | 264.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 247.83$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 64c | 227.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 213.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 51c | 208.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 28c | 167.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 69c | 147.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 28c | 126.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 20c | 121.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 30c | 98.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 72c | 95.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Over | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…04fbbacked Over | 21c | 89.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 87.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 86.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 76.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 70.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c59…cdd8backed Under | 60c | 68.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 64.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 34c | 58.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed Under | 71c | 52.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Under | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 22c | 45.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 31c | 37.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Over | 29c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 77c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed Under | 53c | 27.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.