Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b5df0c63755f8589345a690dde7b1f0054ced3be8c5a999d8038e89efaf22e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 4c | 1,525$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 8c | 1,299$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 5c | 896.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 5c | 610.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 546.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 475.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 421.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 8c | 301.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 8c | 294.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 277.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 245.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 201.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 9c | 195.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 188.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 177$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 164.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 151.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 21c | 137.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 23c | 130.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 115.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 98.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 69c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 49.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 42.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 40.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.