TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes51c1,012$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.931,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes66c892.47$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.497832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c794.9$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.655,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No47c716.22$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.4490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c706.18$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.184,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes49c404.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4331943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes64c355.47$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.247949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No67c349.97$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.981,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c348.4$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.64,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No47c342.55$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes66c324.66$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8111343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c318.9$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.043,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No8c301.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7311169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No46c232.2$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1714646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes15c212.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.471,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes37c203.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8643238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17817310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No51c199.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes36c182.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No58c173.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0313423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes57c167.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c166.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.083,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No58c155$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.421,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No56c153.64$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.941,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef2c…62bcbacked Yes54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes40c145.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.461,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No69c144.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9932872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No63c142.09$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.882,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No56c138.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes40c134.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.236237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No64c134.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7439968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.519239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No49c130$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4963757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c126.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c121.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c117.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No21c114.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes45c111.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8929835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No75c111.4$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5592678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes16c110$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.716,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c106.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.298,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c105.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.728,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes39c101.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3246240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb22…8186backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1923…ef8ebacked No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1129740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No62c97.94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.192,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes51c97.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6971649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed No49c94.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2411950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No13c92.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.052,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes38c91.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6312832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes25c85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.791,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No25c84.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.992,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No68c82.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No61c80.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.151,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed No15c79.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c76.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c76.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.54,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c73.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.442,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No27c65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.315,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes55c64.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1813551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No54c64.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.982,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes43c59.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1728649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c58.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c58.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c57.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.591,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes34c56.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8842643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes18c55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9519217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes54c52.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x421b…890fbacked Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes49c49.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7451631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c48.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.621,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…8be6backed No62c48.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No47c46.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7688973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes33c44.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.952446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No45c44.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes42c44.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.82,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes26c44.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.82,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes49c41.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.974,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No61c41.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8941760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No53c39.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No32c38.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.462,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No53c37.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.852,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No48c34.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.746456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No68c34.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3971464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No64c32.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0157264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5c…81a3backed No50c31.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.712454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No62c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes75c30.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c94…1ff4backed No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.053661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.