Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01cb02716cee2cc1d902487360dd1d925a71e2224625df0984be406c614b0754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 1,012$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 66c | 892.47$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.49 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 794.9$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 47c | 716.22$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.44 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 706.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 404.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.43 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 64c | 355.47$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 67c | 349.97$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 348.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 342.55$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 66c | 324.66$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 318.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 8c | 301.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 46c | 232.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 212.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 203.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 51c | 199.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 182.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 58c | 173.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 57c | 167.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 166.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 153.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…62bcbacked Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 145.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 144.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 142.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 138.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 40c | 134.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 134.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 49c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 126.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 121.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 21c | 114.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 45c | 111.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 111.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 106.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 105.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 101.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…ef8ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 62c | 97.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 51c | 97.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 49c | 94.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 13c | 92.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 38c | 91.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 84.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 82.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 80.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 15c | 79.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 76.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 76.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 73.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 55c | 64.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 64.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 43c | 59.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 58.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 58.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 57.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 56.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 54c | 52.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…890fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 48.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 47c | 46.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 42c | 44.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 61c | 41.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 53c | 39.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 37.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 48c | 34.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 34.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 32.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed No | 50c | 31.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 30.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1ff4backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.